Screenplay Sales Statistics

Ever feel like Indiana Jones in Raiders of the Lost Ark, clutching a golden idol and running for your life only to fall into a pit right in front of a steadily closing stone gate?

According to Hollywood Reporter (Dec 23-25 issue), 77 specs were purchased in 2005. Now this is a very troubling statistic because we really have no specific number of written, pitched, and optioned specs to calibrate it against. The only number I know to use is the number of screenplays registered with WGA in 2005 which, last I heard, was in the 30,000 range. Ouch.

Of course, we don't know how many of those were first drafts, rewrites, etc so maybe we should knock a few off. Whatcha think? Five thousand sound good? Okay, done.

Another thing we don't know is how many unregistered scripts and scripts are being queried, pitched, and bandied about in front of directors and producers so maybe we ought to put that five thousand back.

Roughly then, we are looking at 77 out of 30,000 specs actually sold in 2005. Naturally, these numbers are unscientific and unreliable. But for lack of other factors, it's what I have to go on. So approximately one out of 389 scripts in 2005 was bought. But wait, what about all those scripts from other years? If we estimated 10,000 per year for the past five years, then we have to add 50,000 scripts and something tells me that is a very conservative number. Even so, that's, at a minimum, one in about 1100 scripts.

That's a narrow gate and I think it's overly conservative but for the sake of argument, I'll use it anyway. Besides, I have a knack for beating much larger odds.

Women have a one in a million chance of getting pregnant taking the form of birth control I was using 21 years ago. No skill involved. I beat those odds.

Women have a much smaller chance, one in ten million, of getting pregnant using a secondary form of birth control along with those little pink liars doctors call birth control pills. Well, I beat those odds, too. He's sixteen now.

One in 7000 babies is born with some form of cranio anomoly. Got one.

One in 2000 babies is born with a cleft palate. Got one. Sister got two.

One in three cleft children are born per every 100 members of a family with this genetric tendency. We got four.

Statistics, as my advertising background taught me, can be manipulated to put whatever spin you want on them and a lot depends on your source, unknown variables, and whether the stats have changed since they were last reported. So, I guess you can make them say pretty much whatever you want.

For me, however, I seem to have a gift for beating ugly odds when there is no skill involved. I'm thinking that with some hard work and talent, one in 1100 is a shoe in.

Oh, and for the enquiring minds, when doctors asked if I wanted my tubes tied, burned, or cut, my answer was, "Can't you do all three?"

They did.