Wednesday, May 16, 2012

What Are The Odds?

The Nicholl has tallied the entries and we now know that a whopping 467 more entries were submitted this year than last.  Now, my math is not very good but is that not a 6.93 percent increase? That's huge.

Let's do more math.

There are 7197 entries. What are the odds of advancing to the quarterfinals? Assuming the exact number of screenplays advance to the quarterfinals as last year (351) , that would give you a 4.8 percent chance of advancing out of the 7197 screenplays entered.

But wait. That 4.8 percent is not really accurate -- it can't be -- because with regard to odds, the playing field is not level. Great storytelling has better odds of floating to the top than good or average storytelling. Duh. Good writing has less of a chance than great writing and screenplays that are poorly crafted all around won't float at all. Unfortunately, neither will a lot of other screenplays. Last year 4554 screenplays sank to the bottom.

So what are the odds, really?

Well, regardless what I do with the numbers, my entry is still ONE out of 7197.

My, Nicholl, how you've grown!

No comments: